The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) has released its annual outlook, predicting a significant rebound in the average selling price of homes in Toronto in 2024. The report anticipates that the average selling price will reach the second-highest level ever, marking the beginning of a multi-year recovery in the real estate market.
In addition to the price rebound, the outlook forecasts an increase in sales for the year, projecting a total of 77,000 units compared to the 65,982 homes that changed hands in 2023. The previous year saw a 12% decline from 2022 and a substantial 45.7% drop from the record-setting year of 2021.
Jason Mercer, chief analyst at TRREB, emphasized that while the market is poised for more activity, affordability remains a persistent issue. Mercer pointed to factors such as record population growth, a resilient economy, low unemployment, and declining mortgage rates in the latter half of the year as contributors to increased home sales in 2024. He stated that this upturn signifies the beginning of a multi-year recovery, acknowledging that some households will still face affordability challenges despite lower borrowing costs.
However, Mercer emphasized the need for a corresponding increase in the supply of homes to meet the rising demand. He highlighted the importance of ramping up the construction of new homes to address the ongoing affordability challenges in the market.
TRREB’s president, Jennifer Pearce, echoed Mercer’s sentiments, emphasizing that true relief from affordability challenges can only be achieved by removing obstacles to supply and expediting construction projects. She stressed the need for policymakers to plan ahead and avoid short-term solutions that may exacerbate larger issues in the long run.
According to TRREB, survey data included in the report indicates a decreasing number of homeowners intending to list their properties for sale in 2024. Only 37% expressed likelihood in listing, marking a two-percentage-point decline from 2023. The report also noted a subtle dip in the proportion of respondents expressing a strong intention to purchase a home in 2024.
John DiMichele, TRREB’s chief executive, emphasized several crucial measures needed to address the housing crisis in the region. DiMichele called for a rapid increase in supply, relief for first-time homebuyers in the form of reduced upfront land transfer taxes, and prioritizing “missing middle” housing to provide more diverse and affordable housing options, aligning with long-standing board recommendations.
